Will Michigan's Arab American Voters Kill A Harris Presidency?

Is There An Arab American Rebellion Underway?

This summer, pro-Palestinian demonstrators vowed to shut down the Democratic National Convention in Chicago. It was an audacious move, but the Midwest is the home to the largest concentration of Arab Americans.

The effort was a bust. Few demonstrators showed up.

Many of you know I have reported on the pro-Palestinian movement throughout the year. As I have dug deeper, I have discovered that older American Muslims living in the Midwest really are quite conservative and that the bombastic demonstrators did not appeal to them. Hence, the vast majority stayed home even though many were only a hour or so away from Chicago.

Now, on the eve of the national election, both the moderate and left wings of the American Muslim community are coming into focus. Interestingly, together, both wings appear to be decisively moving away from the Democratic Party which for decades has taken this minority for granted.

And in doing so, they may doom Democratic Presidential candidate Kamala Harris’ path to the White House, especially in the key swing state of Michigan. There are less convincing data in other states, but it appears the Arab-American communities may also help deny Harris in both swing states of Wisconsin and Pennsylvania where both Harris and Trump appear to be neck and neck.

Over the last 20 years Arab Americans have voted 3 to 1 in favor of the Democrats.  But now a political earthquake appears to be occurring that suggests a major political realignment within the Arab-American community.

In reviewing polling data and talking to two major Arab-American advocates who have been deeply involved in their communities for decades, it now appears that one wing of this community is moving to solidify their age-old conservative values and lean towards Republicans.

But because of the war in the Middle East, the other part of this community has also become more radicalized.

As a result, both wings are decisively abandoning the Democratic Party. And the main beneficiaries appear to be the Republican Party as well as the staunchly anti-Israel Green Party.

Across the country, a small but statistically significant number of Blacks, Hispanic and Jewish voters also appear to be moving away from Harris and towards Donald Trump. All of these minorities have traditionally been strongholds for liberals. But it’s unclear if these incremental moves will endure with time.

But the political changes within the Middle Eastern Muslim and Christian communities appear to be deeper and more significant. According to many Arab American leaders, the move away from the Democratic Party appears to be the result of decades of indifference toward this community combined with the war in the Middle East. But the move also could kill Kamala Harris’ Presidential campaign.

Among the more conservative and older Arab Americans, the Party’s move away from the Democrats also appears because of a dawning realization that some of the party’s woke social agenda is deeply anathema to traditional Muslim values. 

Award-winning journalist Ray Hanania has observed the Arab American’s deepening disenchantment with the Democratic Party. For decades, Hanania has been considered one of most highly respected journalists within the Arab American community.

“It’s not so much an anti-Kamala movement. It’s more about the Democratic Party not respecting the Arab community.  That’s always been the real problem,” he told me in an interview.

A mid-September poll of registered Arab American voters conducted by John Zogby Strategies for the Arab American Institute showed that among likely voters, Donald Trump leads Harris 46 to 42%. This was alarming. But it also was predictable as these communities have been offended by both the Democratic drift towards progressive values and the party’s decision to ignore these communities for decades.

“Since we first began polling Arab Americans 30 years ago, the community has consistently favored the Democratic Party,” the AAI states.  But now they report that support appears to be collapsing.

“This is kind of a f***-you endorsement for the Democrats,” said James Zogby about his findings on behalf of AAI.  He’s an influential activist within the Arab American community as well as a nationally recognized pollster. “It’s not so much that people have forgotten how bad Trump is. For some people, it’s about punishment,” he has said. The punishment, he said, is directed toward the Democratic Party because of its neglect and indifference towards this community.

One of the most dramatic examples of this drift away from the Democrats is in Michigan, which has about 200,000 registered Arab American voters. Michigan is a key swing state that will deliver 16 electoral votes to the victor.

As Newsweek reported, “Kamala Harris' chances of beating Donald Trump in the presidential race may hinge on Muslim voters in the battleground state of Michigan, as she faces questions about whether some Muslim and Arab Americans will stay home — or even vote Trump.”

During the Michigan Democratic Presidential primary, more than 100,000 voters expressed themselves as “uncommitted” to protest President Biden’s Middle East policies. The vast majority were Arab Americans.

Harris truly appears to be having trouble gaining real traction with Arab American communities throughout Michigan.  In early October both Harris and her running mate, Gov. Tim Walz attempted to rally Arab Americans by conducting a virtual meeting with Michigan’s Arab American community. It was a disaster.

The event was attended by around 300 people. A similar Democratic event during the 2020 presidential election attracted more than 3,000 people.

On the other hand, Trump seems to be continuing to win the support of various Arab American political and religious figures. He is generating enthusiasm among various American Muslims and Arab Christian communities.  There are many such communities, including those from Lebanon, Iraq, Somalia, Yemen, Jordan, and Syria as well as Palestinians.

The early signs of Trump momentum among Michigan’s Arab American communities came when Amer Ghalib, the mayor of Hamtramck leads one of the nation’s only Muslim-majority cities, endorsed Trump after privately meeting the former President. “His visit today is to show respect and appreciation to our community,” Ghalib said.

Since that original meeting, Trump now has personally met many with many Arab Americans which have generated an enthusiastic reception with the state’s Muslim leaders.  “The outreach,” reported USA Today, “reflects the political rise of Michigan’s Yemeni American community, which has struggled for years to gain recognition by Democrats and from discrimination.” Ghalib is Yemeni.

Since then, the mayor has organized leaders from around the state’s other Arab American communities.  After a rally with Trump, he organized a number of conference calls with American Muslims including with Dearborn Heights Mayor Bill Bazzi  and Imam Hosham Al-Husainy of the Karbalaa Islamic Education Center in Dearborn. Al-Husainy leads a Shia mosque serving people of Iraqi and Lebanese descent.

Mayor Bazzi is an immigrant from Lebanon and a Marines veteran. He's the first Muslim and first Arab American to be mayor of Dearborn Heights,

At a later rally in the Detroit suburb of Novi, about a half-hour drive from Dearborn, Trump was joined onstage by what his campaign described as “prominent leaders of Michigan’s Muslim community.”

Dearborn-based Imam Bilal Alzuhiry of the Great Mosque of Hamtramck met Trump backstage along with twenty other religious leaders from across the country to build support for Arab and Muslim Americans.

Trump has accepted the endorsement from many of the state’s Muslim religious leaders and his momentum has grown.  “I don't want to talk about the past. Now that he is trying to extend his hand to us. The fact that he is meeting us, he is listening to us attentively. I think this is a good gesture. And this is something we can build upon," said Imam Bilal.

“I think the photo op of those Imams with the GOP candidates was unprecedented.  It’s worth a million dollars,”  Kurdish-American activist Entifadh Qanbar told me. He’s a long time Kurdish American activist who worked closely as an advisor to the U.S. military and to the U.S. Embassy after the defeat of Saddam Hussein. He’s also the founder and president of two non-profits, the Future Foundation and Kurdish Protection Action Committee.

“The Republican Party historically has been very weak in how it treats minorities, Muslims, Latinos, Blacks.  And I think Trump has changed this dramatically,” Qanbar told me. He says that has changed under Trump.

Ray Hanania says the fact the Democrats have moved away from conservative Muslim values is a problem. “The interesting thing about Trump and the Republican Party is that Arabs are basically conservative.  They resonate with a lot of the things Republicans talk about. Prayer, religion and traditional family values,” he says.  The party’s turn toward favoring woke and socially radical policies have turned off this community.

Qanbar agrees. He says that Trump has found what he calls the “lost Muslims” who have been dissed by the Democratic Party.

“Trump was able to find the lost Muslims and the lost minorities from the Middle East, who are forgotten, who nobody reached out to.  The Democrats cannot reach out to them because they are moderates and I think that’s extremely important.  Hopefully, that will pay off and the Republicans will win Michigan,” he says.

“I know the leaders of the uncommitted and the now ‘abandon Biden’ which is now ‘abandon Harris,’” Hanania adds.

Hanania said Kamala has lost Michigan, “You know Kamala Harris hasn’t done anything to give herself an advantage in Michigan.  She’s played all the cards wrong.  So, I think she’s going to lose because of Michigan.”

Apparently reading this disenchantment, Rep. Rashid Tlaib, a Palestinian who is a member of the Congressional “Squad” has refused to endorse Harris.  Her district includes Mayor Bassi from Dearborn Heights.

Hanania also adds that some Arab Americans are turning to Green Parry candidate Jill Stein.

The Zogby poll found that Robert Kennedy, Jr. who has exited the race and endorsed Trump received six percent of the vote. And it found Stein garnered five percent.

But a late October poll suggests that nationally, Arab American voters may be surging toward Stein.

A shock poll done by the militant Council on American-Islamic Relations, which claims it’s the largest Muslim advocacy group, says that nationally 42% favor Stein while 41% favor Vice President Kamala Harris. The poll was done October 30-31. Nationwide, 10 percent said they would vote for Trump.

Stein’s running mate is Rudolph “Butch” Ware, an associate professor of history at the University of California, Santa Barbara.  

Ware is staunchly anti-Israel and Stein addressed major pro-Palestinian rallies, including one in Washington, D.C. to protest Israeli Prime Minister’s address before a Joint Session of Congress.  She also spoke in Chicago at a rally that was part of a movement to  “shut down” the at the Democratic National Convention.

Controversially, Ware celebrated Hamas’ October 7th massacre of 1,200 Israelis in 2023. He called it “the modern equivalent of Nat Turner’s rebellion,” a reference to a 19^th century slave revolt in Virginia.

Ware also was a part of a hip-hop duo called Slum Prophecy, which over the summer released an 11-track album titled “Aqsa Flood,” a variation on Hamas’ name for the October 7 attacks. Ware has removed links to the album, which had songs titled “Intifada” and “Kill Shot (Pick Them Off),” according to the Jerusalem Post.

Meanwhile, Qanbar says that Iranian mullahs back in Tehran are furious about American Muslims who favor Trump.

“The Iranians hate to see Muslim to do initiatives, any initiatives outside of their power of control, especially since they have felt so in control of a big chunk of the Middle East. This is to them, a shake up in the Muslim community and most worrisome to (Supreme Leader Ali) Khamanei and the Iranians,” he said to me.

Further, he says most Arab Americans have not been supportive of Iran’s proxies, including Hezbollah, the Hothi’s and Hamas.

“Here’s the scoop,” Qanbar says. “Most of the Muslims here in Detroit and in the United States are really people who escaped from Hezbollah, from the oppression of the Houthis, the oppression of Hamas. Even the Palestinians I met there who are not in favor of Hamas. Those are the silent majority of the Muslims.  They have no voice.”

Hanania adds that Harris faces political danger in other states too. “I think there’s a strong (Arab American) vote in some of these other states like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.  In Michigan, however, she has to win that state.  And I think it’s in jeopardy for her.”