Is Hamas On the Verge of Military Defeat?

Most Hamas Leaders Alive On October 7 Have Been Killed

Events are unfolding quickly in the Gaza Strip in both the diplomatic and military front.

One of the developments that’s been overlooked by nearly all Western media is that Hamas is on the verge of military defeat.

A number of reports about the terrorist’s military demise come in the wake of the May 13 killing of Mohammad Sinwar, Hamas’ top commander, along with other key commanders and top officers in a special command-and-control bunker in Khan Yunis.

Of course, the Hamas command center was located under the European Hospital, normally protected from attack under international law.

Mohammad’s brother, Yayha Sinwar, Hamas’ undisputed political leader, was killed by Israeli forces last October as he tried to move incognito in the strip.

Yonah Jeremy Bob, the Jerusalem Post’s insightful and well-connected senior military correspondent has written that Hamas now appears incapable of launching any serious military operations against the overwhelming force of the Israeli Defense Forces.

This month, IDF forces have poured into Gaza and appear to be operating at will throughout the strip. Called “Operation Gideon’s Chariots,” the new offensive involves five full IDF divisions. Each division consists of 5,000 to 10,000 troops.

Bob says Hamas’ military posture is very precarious, writing, “it is hard to tell whether Hamas will collapse militarily, given that it has not mounted any organized defense against the IDF invasions since March.

This view has been seconded by the Bob’s Post colleague Seth Frantzman who is the senior Middle East Correspondent and analyst for the news outlet.

“Never in the past 40 years has Hamas had so many leaders and commanders (been) killed,” he reported.

“Most Hamas leaders who were alive on October 7 in Gaza are now deceased. Hamas company, battalion, and brigade commanders have almost all been killed,” Frantzman stated.

There also are unverified reports now circulating that Hamas political and military leaders are seeking safe passage to an unnamed third country as part of a complete political and military surrender of the strip. Their destination, most likely, would be Iran.

Qatari officials also state that negotiations between Israel and Hamas have reached a “dead end.” Of course, the Qatari officials, who have financed Hamas for decades, are blaming Israel.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu today said that Israel agreed to a hostage deal within the “Witkoff framework,” but that Hamas has refused it.

The framework relates to U.S. Envoy Steve Witkoff’s proposal for a short-term ceasefire in exchange of about half of the living hostages held by Hamas.

Netanyahu is recalling most of the Israeli hostage negotiators. Only a small “working” team will remain.

Perhaps because the hostage talks failed, Vice President J.D. Vance, who has been in Rome with the new Pope, abruptly cancelled his trip to Israel, which was to have occurred today.

U.S. Hostage Envoy Adam Boehler, who previously was in direct communications with Hamas over the hostages and who has expressed many complimentary comments about the terrorist group, now seems to have toughened his rhetoric about them.

“If Hamas wants to come and make a legitimate offer, if they're willing to release hostages, we're always open to that," he said before a Jerusalem Post conference. "Part of that stems from the movement of the IDF on the ground," he explained. Boehler didn’t criticize the latest IDF offensive.

Also hardening his rhetoric against Hamas is the United Arab Emirates Foreign Minister. He now says the first step in ending the conflict is for Hamas to unconditionally release all the hostages.

“First, getting the hostages out,” Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan declared. “We need calm in Gaza, and we need an authority that is not Hamas that controls Gaza.”

So, for now, Hamas is on military life support, facing few prospects they will prevail on the battlefield.

How long can Hamas hold out? Will the Israeli offensive develop momentum in further decapitating Hamas’ military leadership?

And will anti-Hamas demonstrations spread throughout the Gaza Strip? Will average Palestinians able to overcome the Hamas political commissars who still hope to control nearly every aspect of Palestinian life? And eventually, will Palestinians move from peaceful demonstrations to the outright assassination of Hamas’ secret police and its political thugs?

Israel overcame overwhelming military odds with the 1948 War of Independence, the Six Day War and the Yom Kippur War, all of which were launched by Arabs.

Could Israel achieve another decisive military victory in Gaza?

And will that victory translate into an Israeli political victory on the ground?

Stay tuned.